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The Far-Reaching Costs of Brexit

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As the Brexit referendum looms on June 23rd, polling indicates a recent swing in favor of the “Remain” campaign. Recent polling shows the Brexit campaign losing support among key groups, such as older voters, while Remain enjoys a 13% lead among those who say they will definitely vote in the referendum, expanding to 20% among all voters.

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Brexit: Prospects and Consequences

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by Xueting Zhang  As a potential British exit, or “Brexit,” from the EU looms, the future of both Britain and the EU are at stake. The UK is expected to hold a referendum on its now-renegotiated EU membership in June 2016, and the current and projected benefits and costs of membership are key aspects of the Brexit debate. Polls show …

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The EU and NATO’s Southern Flanks: Five Years After the Arab Spring

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by Mark D. Ducasse From piracy to ungoverned spaces, to illicit networks and Islamic extremists, the situation in the Mediterranean littoral requires a smarter investment of existing resources, a shared and coordinated multilateral response capability, and increased cooperative security engagement between regional security stakeholders: states that border the Mediterranean littoral and interested regional organizations. The events that comprised the 2011 …

The NDB and AIIB: A New Chapter for Multilateral Development Banks?

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by Anna Lee The sun has barely risen on 2016, yet there is a whirlwind of new activity in the world of multilateral development banks (MDBs). The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is open for business and is expected to begin projects later this year. Meanwhile, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) made their first contributions worth …

The Northern Question and the United States: Does Climate Change Herald a New Era for Arctic Security?

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While many in the American political establishment continue to publicly deny the reality of climate change, its effects are increasingly felt across the globe and pose unprecedented humanitarian and geopolitical challenges to states large and small. From rising sea levels that potentially forcing millions from their homes to droughts that drive conflict and instability, climate change adds an unpredictable and powerful variable to equations of global security. One region of the world – the Arctic – is experiencing more dramatic changes than any other, and it is an area of special importance for several NATO countries. According to a 2014 study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, and some predict that summers will see the Arctic ice-free by 2030.

NATO Expansion: Strategic Opportunities and Risks

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For NATO, the question of further enlargement should largely hinge on three considerations: The strategic value of admitting new members, Russia’s potential reaction, and whether systemic problems within the Alliance undermine the strategic value of expansion.

Keeping Cool: A Policy of Restraint in Syria

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Putin’s Syria gambit is best viewed as a short-term tactic given limited options, and one that does not leave Russia in an improved security situation vis-à-vis the West. Recognizing Russia’s weakness in this move is key to formulating an appropriate response. A policy of restraint, coordination, and a continued focus on Ukraine is the way forward that best defends NATO’s core security interests.

Europe’s Migration Crisis and Climate Change

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by Joyce Iwashita European leaders are struggling to manage a massive influx of refugees and migrants into the region, with accompanying domestic opposition, threats of violence, disagreements among themselves, and fear on all sides. Illegal border crossings into the EU began to surge in 2011 as thousands of Tunisians fled the Arab Spring. More recently, Syrians running from their country’s …

Can NATO Reassure its Eastern Members and Deter Putin?

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by John Gennace September 14th marked the start of Russia’s largest military exercise this year – Center 2015 – in which 95,000 Russian military personnel conducted war games designed to test the readiness of forces to “contain an international armed conflict.” The exercise, which took place in the immense region between the Urals and Siberia, came on the heels of …